Tooele County1st Quarter stats are in!
The Tooele County 1st Quarter stats are in, and this is how we look.
Many of you may have read the article in the Salt Lake papers earlier this week, talking about some of the areas of the State with big first quarter home appreciation. It talked about Tooele a bit, and I thought I'd touch on it also and go a bit deeper. You may recall earlier in the year, I mentioned that I saw the market slowing down some in '07. Well, the first quarter numbers show that I was right and I was wrong! The article only talked about sales prices in the County increasing, and they certainly are. According to the wasatch Front Regional MLS, average sales price for single family homes increased by over $49,000 or an amazing 31.79%! Condo prices increased by over 17% to an average of $139,457. In addition, the average asking price for a home in the County jumped over $55,000 to over $224,000!
However, they didn't talk about some of the other stats that go along with these numbers. While prices are up, actual numbers of homes sold were down slightly, about 1.5%. Average days on the market stayed about the same. The one that jumps out at me is the number of homes on the market, which is up 13.5%, and the percentage of listings sold which is also down 13.5%. I'm no economist, but it seems to me that a rise in the supply and a lowering of the demand as shown by the drop in actual sales, aren't consistant with this huge appreciation. So what does all this mean? I have a couple of theories, specifically a problem with how the data was compiled. Part of it is done by zip code. As some of you may know, Tooele, Erda, Lakepoint and Stansbury Park all have the same zip code. Those last 3 areas all are booming with new construction, and many houses being priced for as much as half a million dollars. The average price for a home on the market in Tooele City, where there is much less new construction (thanks to anti-residential growth Mayors and City Councils) is now around $178,000, a far cry from the $204k average selling price in the county. The average sales price in Stansbury Park is almost $243k, which doesn't even include all of the new construction, as many builders don't report stats to the MLS. Erda's average is a whopping $437,000, admittedly on far fewer sales. By the way, Grantsville's average sales price is now over $242K, with fully 26% of homes sold in the first quarter selling for over $300,000!
I ask again, what does all this mean? That Tooele County 1st quarter stats are in?
First of all, it may indicate a swing more toward the buyer. We are now seeing sellers having to be a bit more flexible when receiving offers, as there is more competition. This should lead to a slowing in that runaway appreciation. Notice I didn't say a slowdown in the market. I still worry about where the buyers are comming from as there are not really any "starter" home areas in the county, meaning no one to move up to the bigger, more expensive home. Perhaps this will lead to a bigger gap between the "haves" and "have-nots".
The Tooele City Council didn't help anyone with that when they enacted their goofy new "points system" development ordinance which increased the actual cost to build a home by at least $20,000 (don't get me started on THAT subject!) If I seem cynical about Tooele County Real Estate, I'm not! I see Tooele County continuing to be a great place to buy and to live. It's still the best place around to raise a family, and still the best home buying bargain around. I forsee a day not too far down the road where rush hour traffic actually DECREASES toward SLC because people stay here to work! Maybe I'm dreaming, but It's a nice dream! Wishing will make it so! And I can sure have reason to wish, now that the Tooele County 1st quarter stats are in.